The 19th Communist party leadership elections are scheduled
to take place in China on Oct. 18 this year. New elections spell change
for most governments, and this is certainly true in China. The
elections are not democratic, but are internal elections to the chief
seats of government within the Communist Party.
This election is an ‘odd year’ (the last one was in 2012),
meaning that it will likely contribute substantial changes to the
governance of China. Most notably, the election will include the
retiring of five of the seven current members of the Politburo, the main
governing body of the Chinese government.
While Xi Jinping
will likely retain his seat as General Secretary, the overall makeup of
the government may well change dramatically. These changes could
reflect a change in monetary policy, not unlike the change that happened
in 2011 when the 17th convention sought to ban VIEs (variable interest
entities allowing Chinese companies to trade on US markets). The ban was
quickly overturned after the 18th election was complete.
ICO ban will end?
There’s no guarantee that a new government will reverse the ICO and exchange ban
that has plagued crypto markets in recent weeks. Nevertheless, there
may well be political motives to the ban that will make it unnecessary
after the elections are complete, according to Forbes.
While it’s true that a decentralized currency could create
havoc in the heavily centralized Chinese economic platform, the current
size of the Bitcoin economy is so minuscule that any threat is perceived
rather than real. Therefore, the ban may be more of a jockeying for
seats and positions by current convention hopefuls, rather than a
genuine financially motivated decision.
